Low Price Houses: At some point, the price is overpriced. Increasingly, this may apply to potential buyers of newly-built single-family homes. Sales of these homes in November fell 14% year-over-year, well below analysts’ expectations. And, according to the stats, October sales figures have been revised to their lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
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Despite a slowdown in sales and an increase in mortgage rates, the average price of new buildings sold in November rose by almost 19% compared to November 2020. This happened even when the number of new homes increased. Observers say the increase in inventories should bring prices down.
However, prices for newly built homes continue to rise as stocks of existing homes are historically low. At this point, the question is, how high is too high? “It looks like a major correction will be made, but the rapid rise in existing home prices. Stocks in this market are only a third of that of the new home market compared to sales. Which will put additional upward pressure on new home prices.
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Low Price Houses: Prices for existing homes sold in November rose just over 13% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors, slightly above October’s annual income.
Prices are higher because the inventory of existing homes is much lower and at current sales rates there is only a 2-month stock. The median is also growing, mainly driven by more expensive home sales.
Even recurring selling price indices such as the S&P Case-Shiller are showing prices close to 20% from last year. Prices for new housing are growing because there is little in the secondary market, and more because of the increase in material costs for builders. They pass these costs onto buyers.
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After a peak, last spring and a sharp fall in the summer, lumber prices are now rising again. Its price is now twice as high as it was in early November when the Bahria Department of Commerce announced that it would double import duties on Canadian timber in 2022.
Low Price Houses: Homebuilders are also slowing sales due to supply chain problems because they don’t want to sell a home that they can’t deliver on time. Earlier this month, homebuilder Lennar said quarterly numbers were disappointing, citing “continued housing shortages due to land, labor and supply chain constraints.”
Realtors expect sales of existing homes to be lower next year due to rising mortgage rates and continuing high prices, while builders are more optimistic. Builder sentiment rose to an annual high in December. The sales figures are likely to be revised as the census results are highly biased.
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“We will not be surprised if the figures for October and November are significantly revised. Meanwhile, the upward trend in mortgage applications is likely to better reflect the underlying demand situation in the housing market.
According to the Association, the number of applications for mortgages to buy a new home in November fell by only 2% compared to last year. This is much less than the drop in real sales. As expected, by 2022, if mortgage rates continue to rise, buyers will have less purchasing power and will not be able to afford what is being sold.
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This could lead to lower prices for builders, or at least limit how much they can raise. While the actual correction is a very strong outlook at this point, historically prices have delayed sales by about six months and sales are declining.
